GOVERNOR AIYEDATIWA POLITICS AND THE RISK TO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORAL STRENGTH IN ONDO STATE
By: Prof Sunday Ayodele Enikanselu
Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, this moment demands candour.
You occupy a strategic office at a critical time in Nigeria’s political cycle. Your decisions, alliances, and political management style now feed directly into the national electoral equation tied to the re-election prospects of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
And it must be stated plainly: the signals from Ondo State under your leadership are generating deep concern within party ranks.
Across the state, party members and grassroots operatives are asking hard questions—questions that interrogate judgment and direction. Why are candidates with limited grassroots traction being advanced over those with demonstrable electoral value? Why does the process appear insulated from broad consultation? And why do outcomes increasingly produce friction rather than cohesion?
These concerns are not theoretical. They reflect the lived experience of those who mobilise voters ward by ward. When the base feels excluded, enthusiasm wanes; when enthusiasm wanes, turnout suffers.
Governor Aiyedatiwa, political authority without broad-based buy-in is brittle. A leadership model that concentrates decision-making within a narrow orbit risks alienating the very coalition required to win elections. What is emerging, in the view of many stakeholders, is a pattern that weakens internal architecture at the very moment it should be consolidated.
There is also a growing perception—now too widespread to dismiss—that unresolved tensions may be shaping strategic choices. Whether intended or not, your actions are being interpreted through this lens. In politics, perception is not a footnote; it is a driver of behaviour—withdrawn support, silent resistance, and fragmented mobilisation.
The implications are immediate and material:
• Reduced morale among party faithful
• Erosion of trust across factions
• Weakening of coordinated grassroots operations
Left unchecked, these dynamics will dilute the vote pipeline required to reinforce the mandate of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Governor, this is a moment for recalibration, not defensiveness.
A one-directional approach to politicking—where dissenting voices are marginalised and alternative perspectives are discounted—creates blind spots. And blind spots, in a competitive electoral environment, translate into avoidable losses.
What is required now is disciplined course correction:
• Broaden consultation to include credible stakeholders across all blocs.
• Re-anchor candidate selection on verifiable electoral strength and grassroots acceptability.
• Rebuild trust through transparent, rules-based processes.
• Align state-level decisions with the national electoral strategy.
Critically, the national leadership must now act.
A credible pathway to restoring confidence and securing post-primary cohesion is twofold:
1. Commission an independent, ground-truth assessment of the political environment in Ondo State.
This should involve structured engagement with party stakeholders, community influencers, and ward-level operatives to obtain unfiltered feedback on candidate viability, party cohesion, and mobilisation capacity.
2. Constitute a highly independent, nationally mandated electoral team to conduct the state primaries.
The team must be insulated from local pressures, operate with transparent guidelines, and be empowered to deliver a process that is free, fair, and seen to be so. Legitimacy at the primaries stage is the foundation of unity after the primaries.
This is not an indictment; it is a strategic safeguard.
Where stakeholders trust the process, they are more likely to accept outcomes—even when those outcomes are not personally favourable. That is how cohesion is built. That is how elections are won.
Ondo State is too critical to the national matrix to be left to contested processes or perceptions of bias. The objective must be unmistakable: restore confidence, unify the structure, and maximise electoral performance.
Governor Aiyedatiwa, leadership is ultimately validated by outcomes, not intent. The responsibility to align Ondo State with the broader electoral imperative rests squarely with you.
The window for decisive correction remains open—but it will not remain so indefinitely.
